DINÂMICA DEMOGRÁFICA BRASILEIRA E ENVELHECIMENTO POPULACIONAL NO SÉCULO XXI
DINÂMICA DEMOGRÁFICA BRASILEIRA E ENVELHECIMENTO POPULACIONAL NO SÉCULO XXI
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.3772407085
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Palavras-chave: Estrutura etária, Envelhecimento populacional, Idoso, Indicadores demográficos, Censo Demográfico 2022.
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Keywords: Age structure, Population aging, Elderly, Demographic indicators, 2022 Demographic Census.
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Abstract: The age structure of a population changes as mortality, fertility and migration change, defining different demands. This work revisits an essay presented at an international congress, with the general objective of analyzing the age structure of Brazil and some Federation Units – FU, emphasizing the aging process and bringing data from the last Census. The methodology adopted was the development of age structure indicators, with censused resident population (2000 and 2022) and projected (2060 for Brazil and 2030 for FUs). The main results indicate that the Brazilian aging process is rapid, starting the 21st century with 8.6% of people aged 60 or over (in 2000) and rising to 15.8% in 2022. In 2060, projections reveal 33.7% of elderly people in the country, or 73.5 million. These absolute numbers make the Potential Support Ratio (active people aged 20 to 59 in relation to elderly people), in 2060, 1.6 for elderly men and 1.3 for elderly women, meaning little more than one active person for one elderly person. The oldest FUs, in 2022, with more than 16.5% of the population composed of elderly people, are Rio Grande do Sul, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná and Espírito Santo. In 2030, these FUs will have a percentage of elderly people above 20.8, with exception of Espírito Santo, with 19.2% and Santa Catarina, with 20.1%. The absolute numbers of elderly people stand out, which encourages thinking about individuals in need of care, company, among other supports. The Potential Support Ratios for women that are lower than those for men confirm that women leave the job market earlier and are longer-lived. These results are victories in terms of survival and longevity, and instigate the redesign of public policies for an aging population, mainly to meet demands for specific elderly care and health services.
- Marília Borborema Rodrigues Cerqueira
- Rodrigo Caetano Arantes
- Maria Elizete Gonçalves
- Gustavo Soares Saraiva Ferreira
- Camila Medeiros Dias
- Tiago Aguiar da Silva
- Lara Giovanna Sousa