Comparison of Empirical Methods for Tailings Dam Break Analy-sis: Case of Study The Las Palmas Tailings Dam, Chile

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.923112518031

• Palavras-chave: '

• Keywords: tailings dams; dam break analysis, run-out distance; empirical methods.

• Abstract: This study analyzes the effectiveness of three empirical methods for estimating run-out distance of dam break analysis in the event of tailings dam failures. The case study considered is the Las Palmas tailings dam, which collapsed during the 2010 Maule earthquake. This failure released 231,660 m³ of tailings, affecting 12.5 hectares and resulting in four fatalities. The methods evaluated were those of Lucia et al. (1981), Jeyapalan et al. (1981), and Rico et al. (2008). The Lucia et al. method showed percentage errors of up to 495% in the southern direction of displacement, limited to slopes less than 4°. The Jeyapalan et al. method presented errors ranging from 1% to 30% in the southern direction of displacement, incorporating rheological variables such as viscosity (2–4 kPa·s) and yield stress (5–7.5 kPa). The Rico et al. method exhibited extreme errors, with discrepancies exceeding 1,000%, due to its reliance on historical data and simplifications. The results indicate that while empirical methods are useful for initial estimates of run-out distance, their accuracy decreases in complex scenarios such as Las Palmas. It is concluded that these methods must be complemented with dynamic simulations of dam break analysis that consider specific topographic and rheological variables to enhance community safety and minimize environmental risks in tailings storage facilities.