The number of storms modeled as a Poisson random variable at northeast coast of South America.
Este trabalho busca verificar os parâmetros do Modelo de Probabilidade de Poisson que delineiam a resposta espaço-temporal durante a ocorrência de eventos extremos. O processamento de dados e os procedimentos de coleta de dados desses eventos extremos foram estudados com base na reanálise obtida junto ao National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCEP-NCAR). O resultado obtido com o Modelo de Probabilidade de Poisson foi comparado aos dados de precipitação coletados nos levantamentos que avaliam o comportamento temporal a partir de procedimentos analíticos baseados no fenômeno de Hurst. As análises de variáveis aleatórias discretas da pressão superficial, a umidade relativa, a temperatura do ar, os componentes do vento u e v, a precipitação e a radiação de ondas longas foram estudados a fim de compreender os eventos extremos ocorridos entre 1978 a 2014.
The number of storms modeled as a Poisson random variable at northeast coast of South America.
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DOI: 10.22533/at.ed.99321130814
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Palavras-chave: Eventos extremos, análise discreta , Costa Nordeste da América do Sul
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Keywords: Extreme events, discrete analysis, northeast coast of South America.
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Abstract:
This work search to ascertain the parameters of the Poisson Probability Model that outline the time-space response during the occurrence of extreme events. The data processing and the data collection procedures of these extreme events were studied based in the reanalysis obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCEP-NCAR). The result obtained from the Poisson Probability Model was compared to the precipitation data collected in the surveys that assess the temporal behavior from analytical procedures based on the Hurst's phenomenon. The discrete random variables analyzes of the surface pressure, the relative humidity,
the air temperature, the components of the wind u and v, the precipitation and the radiation of long waves were studied in order to understand the extreme events that have occurred between 1978 to 2014. -
Número de páginas: 11
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