THE INFLUENCE OF VACCINES ON COVID-19 CONTROL BY NUMERICAL SIMULATION: A WARNING FOR ITS SPREAD AND CONTROL

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.0612411016

• Palavras-chave: -

• Keywords: Covid-19 epidemic, epidemiological models, vaccine, SEIR model, spread and control, numerical simulation.

• Abstract: The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics, for the high and low pandemic case, which occurred during the year 2021 at State de Paraná Brazil and these results were compared. For this procedure, the model parameters using officially reported of State de Paraná Brazil were calibrate. As result the S (susceptible population) and E (exposed population) parameters decay as a function of time, being a very drastic drop for S and a slow decrease to E in high pandemic, however, the I (infected population) parameter rises and decays as a function of time, but, in a high pandemic, the tendency is to grow, nevertheless, the R (recovered population) parameter rises as a function of time, in low pandemics this parameter has a much higher growth behavior than in high pandemics, as expected. So, the numerical simulation is consistent with reality. This result is coherent with what is happening in the scenario in the different cities of the countries of the world. Among the advantages of the implemented model, it should be noted that despite the simplicity of the hypotheses, the adjustments obtained were quite accurate and the projections made do not differ much from those other more complex models. Our results could also provide useful suggestions for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreaks in different countries and locations