MODELAGEM MATEMÁTICA E ESTATÍSTICA ESPACIAL APLICADAS AO ESTUDO DO DESMATAMENTO E DA MALÁRIA NA REGIÃO DA AMAZÔNIA OCIDENTAL, BRASIL
MODELAGEM MATEMÁTICA E ESTATÍSTICA ESPACIAL APLICADAS AO ESTUDO DO DESMATAMENTO E DA MALÁRIA NA REGIÃO DA AMAZÔNIA OCIDENTAL, BRASIL
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DOI: 10.22533/at.ed.2792329111
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Palavras-chave: Modelagem Matemática. Estatística Espacial, Semiovariograma e krigagem, desmatamento, malária, Amazônia Ocidental.
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Keywords: Mathematical Modeling. Spatial Statistics, Semiovariogram and kriging, deforestation, malaria, Western Amazon
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Abstract: The present study aimed to analyze the behavior of the spatial dispersion of deforestation and malaria cases in the District of União Bandeirantes, rural area of the municipality of Porto Velho, Rondônia, Western Amazon. Two statistical indicator tools were used. The semivariogram and kriging. The semivariogram method is the mathematical modeling and statistic spacial that allowed to study the natural dispersion of variables, and the kriging method was used to analyze the spatial variability of the existing indicators in the study area. The indicative kriging method showed that the occurrence of malaria cases is related to the growth of deforestation. With the advance of deforestation towards the north of the studied area, malaria cases increased in the same direction. There was an increase in malaria cases east of the population concentration, converging with the area of advance of deforestation. It can be concluded that the methods used are efficient to correlate and monitor deforestation and the social production of malaria. It is suggested that public managers should develop means to implement a deforestation control strategy integrated with the malaria endemic in the rural area, and in this specific case, in the District of União Bandeirantes.
- Carlos Alberto Paraguassú-Chaves
- Fabrício Moraes de Almeida
- Fabio Robson Casara Cavalcante
- David Lopes Maciel
- Paulo de Tarso Carvalho de Oliveira