MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND STUDY OF THE DEPENDENCE EFFECT OF THE COCOA PRODUCTION INDEX

• DOI: 10.22533/at.ed.1562319121

• Palavras-chave: Mathematical Modeling. Cocoa Production Index. Hypothetical-deductive study.

• Keywords: Mathematical Modeling. Cocoa Production Index. Hypothetical-deductive study.

• Abstract: The book chapter aims to demonstrate the application of Mathematical Modeling to analyze the path dependence effect of Douglass North from the construction of the cocoa production index using quantitative methods, aiming to contribute to discussions on the “conservation and development” trade-off. in the Amazon. Methods: this is a hypothetical-deductive study. The CPI was calculated following the factorial analysis techniques presented by Hair et al [11], Santana [12,13],  Cavalcante [14], Paraguassu-Chaves et al. [31] and the SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) was used. Results: in Brazil the level of performance of cocoa production, when considering the number of cocoa producing municipalities and the indicators, area destined to harvest (hectares), quantity produced (ton), average production yield (kilograms per hectare) and value production (thousand reais) is very low, almost inefficient. Rondônia follows the logic found in Brazil. Conclusions: despite the importance of cocoa production, there are still no regional development centers for cocoa cultivation in Rondônia. All cocoa producing municipalities had low levels of PCI performance. The fact that CEPLAC develops its actions exclusively in the East Rondoniense portion of the State only reinforces the analysis in this direction, which helps to understand the path dependence character of the cocoa policy in Rondônia.