A DEMANDA E A OFERTA INTERNACIONAL DE CAFÉ NO BRASIL: UM MODELO DE EQUAÇÕES SIMULTÂNEAS
A DEMANDA E A OFERTA INTERNACIONAL DE CAFÉ NO BRASIL: UM MODELO DE EQUAÇÕES SIMULTÂNEAS
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.8402421065
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Palavras-chave: Competitividade, Demanda, Oferta, Importações, Exportações.
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Keywords: Competitiveness, Demand, Supply, Imports, Exports.
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Abstract: From the nineteenth century, the commercialization of Brazilian coffee took a dynamic propensity in the world market, having an important role for the economic development of the country and in the international commercial relation. Thus, the objective of this paper is to estimate the world coffee supply and demand equation, in order to highlight its determinants and its dynamics in the international market. The data used are from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) and the World Bank and the applied method is a model of simultaneous equations that seeks a balance between the supply and demand of coffee in the international market. Our results indicate a strong relationship between coffee supply and demand, which indicates that the method selected is appropriate to the study problem. In addition, important contributions to the microeconomic fundamentals were found, such as an inelastic relationship with price, a cross-elasticity of demand relationship, in relation to the price of Colombian coffee, and a positive association with external income. Thus, the results show that although the country is still the largest exporter of coffee in the world, there is a strong dependence on external variables of the international market. In this sense, it becomes necessary to qualify the product and diversify it, so that one can obtain a greater added value and a more consistent dynamic in the productive chain.
- Nathalia Caroline Faria
- Luan Vinicius Bernardelli
- Ednaldo Michellon