Mapping the Dynamics of Dengue Serotypes in the 2023 Epidemic: Insights from Spatial-Temporal Analysis and Emergence of the Cosmopolitan DENV-2 Genotype in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.1594282419035

• Palavras-chave: -

• Keywords: Serotypes of Dengue Virus (DENV); Business Intelligence (BI); Geographic Information System (GIS)

• Abstract:

  Ribeirão Preto, situated in the northeastern region of São Paulo, spans an area of 651km², housing nearly all of its 698,642 inhabitants within its urban perimeter. The city experiences a tropical savanna climate, characterized by hot and rainy summers and dry winters with significant thermal amplitude. With a history of successive dengue epidemics since 1990 and the circulation of all four dengue serotypes (DENV), the municipality is classified as endemic and possibly hyperendemic for dengue. Dengue, a neglected tropical disease, poses a significant public health threat, fueling epidemics worldwide and potentially leading to hemorrhagic fever. While infection with one serotype confers permanent immunity, subsequent infections, particularly with DENV-2 or DENV-3, can increase the risk of severe cases. This study aims to delineate the spatial and temporal distribution of each DENV serotype based on geographic coordinates of residence and symptom onset, identify hotspots and clusters of cases, and discern differences between dengue with warning signs and severe dengue by serotype. Collaboration between the Blood Center Research Group (GP) and the Municipal Laboratory (LM) facilitated the integration of DENV data into the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan). Subsequently, the DENV-GIS Dashboard, employing Business Intelligence (BI) data modeling, was developed to conduct space-time analysis (STA) of circulating DENV in 2023. Using ArcGIS for Power BI by Fabric resources, the study unveiled a dengue incidence rate of 5% for cases with warning signs and severe symptoms attributed to DENV-1, while DENV-2 exhibited a significantly higher rate of 21%. Spatial distribution analysis identified a distinct cluster of DENV-2 cases, indicating a focal point of transmission. This discovery facilitated the demarcation of a specific area warranting further investigation. Notably, within this delineated zone, the presence of the Cosmopolitan DENV-2 Genotype was confirmed. Thus, the DENV- GIS Dashboard emerges as a valuable analytical-operational tool for STA of DENV, facilitating the identification of geographic regions for targeted intervention in endemic control. This study underscores the importance of continuous surveillance and strategic intervention to mitigate future epidemics in regions with persistent dengue exposure.