ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FROM PRECIPI-TATION AND TEMPERATURE DATA USING THE MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION METHOD FOR THE ZAPATOSA SWAMP COMPLEX

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.317562520055

• Palavras-chave: climate variability; Monte Carlo Simulation; SARIMA models; La Zapatosa Complex; adaptation to climate change

• Keywords: climate variability; Monte Carlo Simulation; SARIMA models; La Zapatosa Complex; adaptation to climate change

• Abstract:

  
  This study evaluates climate variability in the La Zapatosa Complex (CCZ) using Monte Carlo simulation and SARIMA models, with the objective of projecting changes in precipitation and temperature between 2022 and 2040, based on a quantitative and stochastic methodology. The results, obtained from the analysis of 13 climate and weather stations, indicate an annual decrease of 1.40% in precipitation and an increase of 0.96°C in temperature. These trends pose critical risks to water sustainability, biodiversity and regional food security. It is concluded that it is urgent to implement adaptation measures, such as efficient water resource management and crop diversification, to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the CCZ.