Water scarcity in areas with high densities in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area, a challenge for the year 2050.

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.22533/at.ed.153222529042

• Palavras-chave: Erosion, runoff, hydrographs, urbanization, watersheds.

• Keywords: Erosion, runoff, hydrographs, urbanization, watersheds.

• Abstract:

  The Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara (AMG) has experienced a remarkable development since the 90's and an accelerated growth since 2015, leading to a change and use of soil that has caused significant alterations to runoff, as well as a decrease in infiltration to the subsoil causing crop losses as a result of erosion. Among the factors contributing to the serious water crisis we can mention the following: non-compliance with water security plans, inadequate Integrated Water Management, in addition to an extreme concentration of water by a few. The objective then is to determine the magnitude of rainfall runoff in the lower part of the basin, as well as the hydrographs before and after urbanization through the collection of information on physiographic and climatological characteristics of the watersheds: Real del Valle, Santa Fe, Chulavista and Unión del Cuatro, as well as to determine the peak flows with return periods up to 100 years. The methodology used was the application of the American rational formula using probabilistic and statistical models and using log normal, Gumbel and Pearson distribution functions. These values of average precipitation and rainfall intensity were obtained with information from the Tlajomulco climatological station. The solution would be for the information generated with metadata to be conclusive, indicating the existence or modification of the natural channels through hydraulic works that alter the regimes of the currents, for which reason it is recommended that the data sample be ample and if it is small it is convenient to carry out additional studies, such as rainfall-runoff.