EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE RISK OF OCCURRENCE OF MONILIASIS (Moniliophthora roreri) OF CACAO IN COMALCALCO, TABASCO, MEXICO

• DOI: 10.22533/at.ed.973392328069

• Palavras-chave: Theobroma cacao, climate favourability, HADGEM2 model

• Keywords: Theobroma cacao, climate favourability, HADGEM2 model

• Abstract:

  The risk of moniliasis infection was determined(Moniliophthora roreri) in the main cocoa-producing area of the state of Tabasco and all of Mexico; under two time periods. The first for the period (1965 - 2006) and the second for a climate change scenario of high CO2 emissions, for a horizon (2015 - 2039). For this, historical data from the period 1965-2006 from the weather station 027009 in Comalcalco, Tabasco were used. And for the horizon (2015 - 2039) average temperature data of 24 years generated by the HADGEM2 model were obtained under a scenario of high CO2 emissions. The risk of infection for both periods was determined based on the degree of climatic favorability for the disease to prosper and develop, using a classification based on temperature and relative humidity data. When comparing both periods, the results show that under the worst climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the climatic conditions would be less favorable for the thrush infestation to thrive.